As we enter business planning season for most real estate agents I’m already starting to see plans of doubling business from last year or something along those lines. Companies go through phases of grown and sometimes survival is success. As markets contract and the rules of the game change growth doesn’t always show up in the form of more units, more GCI, more volume, etc. Sometimes growth shows up in holding the line on your current numbers when the industry around you is 30% down. Stop and read that line again…. Many economists anticipate that over the next 12 months we will see somewhere between 20 and 30% less closed units than we saw over the previous 12 months. If that holds true there will be many businesses that shrink by 20-30%. If we are able to hold the line on our current production and/or market share we’re still winning. All we have to do is stay in the game for long enough for others to quit. If we hold the line while they’re quitting we’re setting ourselves up for victory and to take massive market share when they’re gone. Of course this message assumes if you’re reading this you will be one of the ones still with us however many will not be that lucky. NAR publishes the number of members by year directly on their website. Check these numbers out. This chart shows the number of members in NAR over a period of time.
Starting in 2004 the number of agents during a boom market jumped from about 1.1mm to ~1.3 in 2007. This was already after a build up leading up to 2004. From 2007 to 2012 the number of members dropped to less than 1mm members. At the end of 2021 NAR had 1.55mm members. People have flocked to our industry because you could easily make $50-100k by doing minimal work. Many of these agents will be gone within the next 12 months because they’re going to have to work harder to earn that income. Those 4-8 transactions times a few hundred thousand agents will end up going back to those that “survive” through the changing market. I share all of this to say that sometimes growth isn’t easy to see on a scoreboard. Don’t fool yourself into thinking you have to double your units next year.